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Showing posts with label Futures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Futures. Show all posts

Nifty support seen at 5100-5200 level

Posted by blog master Sunday, January 10, 2010

The Nifty opened the week on a positive note and maintained above 5200 levels since the beginning of the week till the end. However, it could not
close above 5300 levels, even after crossing it twice in a week since January 4. A long build-up was seen during the Monday-Wednesday period.

On Friday, Nifty February futures closed at 5249 levels with five points premium to the Nifty and 17-points loss. The Open Interest decreased by 1%. Long unwinding was seen in Nifty February futures on Thursday and Friday. Put Call Ratio (V), after remaining above one with a high of 1.27 and a low of 1.12 during the week, which shows trading activity on the Put side was of little more interest, but good for market health.

Overall, a long build-up was seen and no major sign of short build-up was seen. In the February series, a maximum open interest was seen on 5300/5400 Calls. On Thursday and Friday, a short build-up was seen in 5300 Call and Open Interest was increased above 10% on both days, which shows the 5300 level to be an effective resistance for further price advance. On the Put side, a maximum Open Interest was seen in 5000/5200 /5100 Puts and a long build-up was seen in 5200/5100 Puts. However, open interest was not so huge.

F&O cues are showing resistance from 5300 levels and support at 5100-5200. Technically, a decisive price rally has not been taking place in major indices of the US, Europe and Asian markets.
source-economictimes.indiatimes.com
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Nifty likely to face resistance at 5300 level

Posted by blog master Tuesday, January 5, 2010

The Nifty rallied for the third consecutive day, touching a new 52-week high. Based on good global cues, the Nifty made a gap-up opening carrying

the positive basis.


The sustained upmove on the Nifty attracted over a million shares yet again in open interest. Although the movements in the Nifty are of not more than 50 bps, the additions in Open interest on the Nifty future side are negating the low-base effect with which we started January. Continuing premium on the Nifty indicates additions of more longs than shorts. Nifty futures may face minor resistance at 5300 levels, but would target 5410 levels ahead in the series.


The option composition for January series remains in a reasonably bullish mode with Open Interest Put Call Ratio at 1.42 for January Series. Nifty options indicate immediate support at 5200, while 5000 remains the heaviest build in Put creating an intermediate strong support.


As far as upside is concerned the move on the Nifty may be a little slow, given the amount of Call build-up on the higher side 5300-5500. Even at these higher levels, Nifty options are not pricing in risk of any big fall as indicated by lower Implied Volatility of mid-20%. So, we recommend initiating a Nifty bull Call spread — buying Nifty January 5200 CE, selling Nifty January 5300 CE and selling Nifty January 5400 CE. This strategy will be profitable at 5200-5500 on expiry.


Jitendra Panda

Sr VP-business associate

Motilal Oswal Financial

source-http://economictimes.indiatimes.com


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